CHARLOTTE METRO REAL ESTATE TRENDS AND STATS

Mortgage bond prices remained volatile in up and down trading last week. We started the week in positive territory only to have the gains erased as stronger than expected housing starts data shocked the market Tuesday and overshadowed the tame inflation data. Producer and consumer price data showed inflation remained in check however oil prices remained volatile. US debt concerns continued as the Treasury announced record auctions ahead. For the week interest rates remained near unchanged.

While the Fed meeting is usually the most important event it will likely be overshadowed by the record $104b Treasury debt auctions this week. Durable goods order, income, outlays, and consumer sentiment data may also cause mortgage interest rate volatility.


Economic Factors
Economic Indicator
Release Date Time
Consensus Estimate
Analysis
Existing Home Sales
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Up 3.2%
Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
2-year Treasury Note Auction
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
None
Important. $40 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Durable Goods Orders
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Down 0.9%
Important. An indication of the demand for
New Home Sales
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Up 2.3%
Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
5-year Treasury Note Auction
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
None
Important. $37 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
No change
Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Q1 GDP final revision
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Down 5.7%
Moderately important. A measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
7-year Treasury Note Auction
Thursday, June 25, 2009
None
Important. $27 billion of notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Fed Meeting

The Fed's chief policy tool is the manipulation of short-term interest rates. As of late, short-term rates have been so low that the Fed is limited with their options. The Obama administration is pushing for expanded Fed powers to supervise large banks, hedge funds, and consumer financial products. Both political parties express concerns about increasing the Fed's role citing previous failures. However, most agree something needs to be done and many argue the Fed is best equipped to tackle the current problems. All eyes will be focused on the Fed meeting Wednesday. A cautious approach to float/lock decisions is prudent heading into the meeting. Market volatility is likely.


Posted by Philip Jernigan, SRA on June 22nd, 2009 10:49 AMPost a Comment (0)

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