CHARLOTTE METRO REAL ESTATE TRENDS AND STATS

WRS Report 3/30/2009
March 30th, 2009 10:02 AM
 
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Market Comment - Week of March 30th, 2009

Mortgage bond prices fell last week applying upward pressure on mortgage interest rates. The bond market got a shock from a surprise increase in new home sales, stronger than expected durable goods orders, and some stock strength. There were also concerns about the US dollar in general and dollar denominated securities as China expressed interest in substituting the yuan to dollar peg in exchange for a new international currency. Fortunately the Fed continued to come to the rescue buying mortgage backed securities in an effort to keep interest rates relatively steady and low. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 1/8 to 1/4 of a discount point.

The employment report Friday will be the most important economic release this week.


Economic Factors
Economic Indicator
Release Date Time
Consensus Estimate
Analysis
Consumer Confidence
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
28.0
Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Dow 648k
Important. A measure of employment. A larger decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Construction Spending
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Down 2.0%
Low importance. An indication of economic strength. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates.
ISM Index
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
35.5
Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. A large decline may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Factory Orders
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Down 1.3%
Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A larger decrease may lead to lower rates.
Employment
Friday, April 3, 2009
8.5%, -657k
Very important. An increase in unemployment or a larger decrease in payrolls may bring lower rates.

Consumer Confidence

The Conference Board releases the Consumer Confidence Index on the last Tuesday of every month. The report details the levels of confidence individual households have in the performance of the economy. The data is derived from a survey of 5,000 households nationwide. The survey polls consumer opinions on current business conditions, their jobs, their incomes, and their future spending plans.

The consumer confidence index is significant in that it provides a precursor into consumers' willingness to spend in the months ahead. However, many analysts point out that willingness to spend does not always convert to actual expenditures.

Despite economic uncertainty, liquidity issues, and housing market weakness, American consumers continue to spend. However, many analysts question whether consumers can continue to buoy the economy, especially amid rising unemployment and tightening credit.

This week's release will be eagerly anticipated. Look for any variation from estimates to cause mortgage interest rate volatility. Signs of eroding consumer confidence could lead to improvements in mortgage interest rates. However, stronger than expected figures could spike rates higher.

With mortgage interest rates relatively low, capitalizing on current levels is recommended to protect against future volatility. Remember, mortgage interest rates tend to trend lower slowly, while increases tend to occur quickly. A cautious approach is necessary to protect from future market volatility.


Posted by Philip Jernigan, SRA on March 30th, 2009 10:02 AMPost a Comment (0)

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5 Questions to Ask Before Remodeling
March 31st, 2009 9:00 AM

Five Questions to Ask
Before Remodeling

by Marshall Loeb
From MarketWatch
April 08, 2008

NEW YORK -- Spending on remodeling is expected to reach $316 billion this year alone and the number is still climbing, according to the Home Improvement Research Institute. So make sure you know exactly how big a renovation you can afford and whether it justifies the time you intend to spend in your revamped home.

The Nest, a home-improvement Web site, says before making any big changes to your home you should ask yourself these big questions:

  1. How long do I plan to stay in my house after the renovations? The longer you plan to live there, the more creative you can be. But if you're planning on selling the house in the next five years, keep potential buyers in mind with your choices. In the latter case, for instance, go with neutral colors in the kitchen and bathroom, and consider maple cabinets. Some people hate oak, others hate cherry, but the majority can live with maple.

  2. Am I doing just cosmetic fixes or am I ready for an all-out overhaul? It's OK to make small changes one at a time, but think long-term about the next step. For example, if you're buying a new sink, buy one with enough holes on the deck for the faucet, sprayer and soap dispenser you might want to add on later. (Cutting more holes into stainless steel or porcelain after the sink is installed is an onerous job you don't want to get stuck with.) And if you know you're going to buy new cabinets later, don't replace the countertop with expensive granite now. The chances of reusing it are very slim -- either it breaks when you try to remove it, or it doesn't match the footprint of the new cabinets.

  3. Am I prepared for the home upheaval? Be realistic about how long these changes might take. Renovations can go on for months, so you need to be prepared to make do without that bathroom, kitchen or bedroom. When checking references before you hire your contractor, be sure to ask if the company finished the work on time. You'd be surprised how quickly a week can turn into a month. And if you're bunking up with your in-laws during renovation, that month can seem like a year.

  4. Are the renovations keeping with the style of my home? Any big changes you make to a home inside should reflect what future buyers will expect from the outside. If you live in a Victorian house, don't make it too contemporary. People who see a historical exterior will expect a historical interior, so stay true to the details. The same goes for a contemporary or modern home, where future buyers may not expect old-fashioned details like antique crown molding.

  5. Are my DIY choices reasonable? You may consider yourself handy, but many do-it-yourself jobs demand your time more than anything else. If you have a full-time job, are you capable of taking on a second one? Some makeovers that are not technically difficult can take longer than you think. For that reason, if you start any job yourself, try to sample it before committing to the whole thing. For example, while refinishing cabinets with a new stain isn't rocket science, sanding down each one can take forever.

A final tip: if you do plan to follow through with a large-scale renovation, do the smallest room in the house from start to finish -- the insulating, rewiring, painting, refinishing, tiling -- so you gain a sense of accomplishment.


Posted by Philip Jernigan, SRA on March 31st, 2009 9:00 AMPost a Comment (0)

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The Price is Right
March 29th, 2009 5:04 PM

The Price is Right - 78% of First-time Home Buyers Say Now Is Good Time to Buy

house-wbeRISMEDIA, March 30, 2009-Century 21 Real Estate LLC, the franchisor of one of the world’s largest residential real estate sales organizations, announced the results of its recently commissioned first-time home buyer survey. The survey found that more than three-quarters (78%) of potential first-time home buyers say that now is a good time to buy a home, despite widespread concern about the economy. Out of the 1,000 prospective U.S. first-time home buyers surveyed for the CENTURY 21 First-Time Home Buyer Survey, 68% think now is a better time to buy than six months ago. Prices are the driving motivation for potential first-time home buyers with more than eight out of ten first-time home buyers (85%) saying they consider current home prices affordable and 73% citing that taking advantage of current prices is a major factor in their decision to buy. Interestingly, potential first-time buyers are still split between “being willing to consider an offer now” (42%) and “waiting for prices to go down before they seriously consider making a purchase” (48%).

“Current pricing, rates and incentives, such as the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, provide tremendous opportunities for first-time home buyers to get into the market,” said Tom Kunz, Century 21 Real Estate president and CEO. “Our research shows that while consumers still have concerns about the future of the economy, many are actively considering their options as we move into the spring selling season.”

Among the survey’s other key findings:

Bargains in the marketplace are providing additional options for buyers to consider. 56% of potential first-time home buyers are considering purchasing a foreclosed or short sale home, and 63% are open to purchasing either a “fixer-upper” or “as-is” home.

When asked to rate the features that they look for when choosing a home, price is the primary consideration with 87% saying this feature is “very important,” followed closely by neighborhood safety (80%) and the condition of the home (71%).

Having enough money for a down payment is a top concern for potential first-time home buyers as nearly half (46%) said they are “very worried” about the issue.

Most respondents (86%) are in the market for single family homes.

Available Government Incentives

In addition to affordable home prices and mortgage rates, the survey also showed strong interest in taking advantage of the recent government stimulus. More than three-quarters (77%) of potential first-time home buyers say they are more likely to buy a home in the next six months because of the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit offered in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

Affordable Mortgage Rates

Perception about the lending market is a key concern for prospective first-time home buyers. Current mortgage rates are considered to be affordable by approximately three-quarters (72%) of respondents and 62% recognize that rates are lower than a year ago. However, 75% of potential first-time home buyers believe it is difficult to get a home loan right now and 74% think it is harder to get a loan now, than at the same time last year.

“Traditional mortgage investors, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and VA, are receiving significant financial backing from the federal government, keeping interest rates low and mortgage funds available for qualified buyers,” said Marshall Gayden, senior vice president of Century 21 Mortgage®. “Home buyers who have a stable job history of at least two years, solid credit (620 and above) and down payment money that can be documented (3.5% on FHA loans) are well positioned to secure a mortgage in today’s credit environment.”

Understanding the Buying Process

Prospective first-time home buyers also indicate that there is a real need for someone who can provide accurate and reliable information while they look for a home. When asked about the real estate transaction process, more than half (59%) of potential buyers rated their understanding of the process as either “fair” or “poor.”

“Between home loans, the closing process and understanding the new government stimulus, real estate professionals play a vital role in working with first-time home buyers to help them navigate the current market,” said Kunz. “Every individual situation is different, and consumers should use their Realtor as a trusted advisor to seek opportunities, get educated on the process and make informed decisions.”

In addition, the survey asked potential buyers which factors are most relevant in their decision to choose a home:

First-Time Home Buyers’ Top Reasons for Buying (% saying major factor):
Taking advantage of current housing prices 73%
Moving to a bigger living space 60%
Having a more suitable place to start or raise family 56%
Buying a home as an investment 47%
Moving to a better neighborhood 44%
Moving to better location for work 28%

For more information, visit www.century21.com.

RISMedia welcomes your questions and comments. Send your e-mail to: realestatemagazinefeedback@rismedia.com.


Posted by Philip Jernigan, SRA on March 29th, 2009 5:04 PMPost a Comment (0)

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NC Business Information
March 23rd, 2009 8:54 PM

North Carolina is the second-best state in which to conduct business, according to Chief Executive magazine.
The magazine evaluates states on natural resources, regulation, tax policies, quality of living, education and infrastructure, among others. North Carolina ranked No. 3 last year.
The state’s best asset is its work force, the magazine says. Chief Executive ranked North Carolina’s work force as third-best in the country.
Other areas of strength included access to capital (No. 10), business friendliness (No. 10), transportation (No. 15) and technology and innovation (No. 18).
Texas maintained its ranking of first on the list, which was based on surveys of more than 500 chief executives. The magazine says states that perform well in the rankings tend to have lower taxes and little unionization.
California and New York were ranked the worst and the second worst, respectively.

Source: Charlotte Business Journal


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Market Comment - 3/23/2009
March 23rd, 2009 6:38 PM
Market Comment - Week of March 23rd, 2009

Mortgage bond prices rose last week applying downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. The bond market got a boost from the Fed announcement (read below) to buy more mortgage debt. There was some profit taking in bonds Thursday afternoon following the run-up in prices Wednesday. Higher than expected core readings of the consumer and producer price indices reignited some inflation concerns. The Fed's continued efforts to pump money into mortgage bonds helped keep mortgage interest rates favorable. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans fell by about 1/2 of a discount point.

The Treasury auctions will once again take center stage this week as additional debt supply hits the market. Durable goods orders and consumer sentiment data will be important.


Economic Factors
Economic Indicator
Release Date Time
Consensus Estimate
Analysis
2-year Treasury Note Auction
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
None
Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Durable Goods Orders
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Down 2.0%
Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
New Home Sales
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Down 2.9%
Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
5-year Treasury Note Auction
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
None
Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Q4 GDP final revision
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Down 6.6%
Important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
7-year Treasury Note Auction
Thursday, March 26, 2009
None
Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Personal Income and Outlays
Friday, March 27, 2009
Down 0.1%, Outlays up 0.3%
Important. A measure of consumers' ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Friday, March 27, 2009
56.0
Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Additional Fed Money

Last week the Federal Reserve announced it would pump another $750 billion into purchasing more mortgage-backed securities, the bonds that directly dictate 30 year and 15 year fixed rate Government and Conventional mortgage interest rates. This is in addition to the $500 billion being used between January and June to drive mortgage interest rates lower and help stimulate the economy.

So far the Fed has been able to keep mortgage interest rates relatively low while not destroying the functioning secondary market where investors buy and sell mortgage bonds. The potential negative is that the Fed has become the primary purchaser of these bonds. In the short term take advantage of these advantageous rates. There is uncertainty how things will play out once the Fed begins to unwind those positions in the future.


Posted by Philip Jernigan, SRA on March 23rd, 2009 6:38 PMPost a Comment (0)

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news - 3/2009
March 21st, 2009 8:24 AM

Reminder of Requirements if You Close Late in the Year

If you closed on your exchange relinquished property in the year 2008, you must report the completed exchange on IRS Form 8824, Like Kind Exchanges, as part of your normal 2008 tax return. For those who closed on their relinquished property after October 20, 2008, and have not completed their exchange, the end of the 180-day exchange period can be no later than April 15, 2009, unless you file an on-time extension. To get the automatic six-month extension, you must file the simple IRS Form 4868 prior to April 15, 2009.

Do You Claim a Mileage Write-Off to Check on Your Rental Property?

You can deduct ordinary and necessary travel expenses related to your rental activities, including 50% of meal expenses incurred while traveling away from home. Starting January 1, 2009, the IRS standard mileage rate is fifty-five cents (55 cents) per mile. Last year's Form 1040, Schedule E, instructions stated you can use the standard mileage rate only if you used the standard rate for the first year the vehicle was placed in service or the entire lease period. Also, include on Line 6 of the Schedule E all parking fees encountered. You must also complete Part V of Form 4562. See the instructions for Line 6, Schedule E, for more details on claiming mileage deductions. This is an expense that should not be overlooked.

IRS Private Letter Ruling 200901020

In a little known private letter ruling, the IRS clarified that existing residential development rights to be transferred by an exchangor as relinquished property were of like-kind to a fee interest in real estate, a leasehold interest in real estate with over 30 years remaining, and land use rights for hotel units on land the exchangor already owns. Under the state law the development rights were also an interest in real property.

Fannie Mae Changes Four Unit Restriction

At the urging of the National Association of REALTORS®, Fannie Mae will, as of March 1, 2009, fund condo units for investors who have financing on over four properties. They will now provide financing for investors who have mortgages on up to ten properties. Fannie Mae also raised investor loan-to-value ratios and did impose a number of investor tests including documentation of all rental income, two years worth of federal tax returns, strict bank reserve requirements and no bankruptcy or foreclosures in the past seven years. As Columnist Ken Harney has said, Fannie Mae is looking to deal only with the financially stable multi-unit investors. Yet this overall policy change will let those who qualify to at least get Fannie Mae loans instead of the hard-to-get high priced loans from other sources.

This change is in addition to Fannie Mae's earlier change that it will no longer count vacant, bank foreclosed and bank real estate owned units as non-owner occupied. Investors or home buyers often were stopped from getting financing and buying in a condo complex because of the way Fannie Mae counted units. However, they also announced rules not to fund mortgages in a condo complex if more than 20% of the space is not residential, a single entity owns more than 10% of the total units, or if they consider the sales and finance being offered by the developers or owners to be excessive.

2009 Stimulus Bill H.R. 1

Many organizations and lobbyists have been actively tracking and have influenced the stimulus bill. Particularly, the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) tried to insure certain items were added and that gains made over years were protected. Of special interest was a tax credit for first-time home buyers. This is defined as those who have not been homeowners in the past three years. According to Mr. Charles McMillan, the 2009 President of NAR, the tax credit with no payback (not a loan) will be $8,000. This credit is in fact 10% of the purchase price up to the $8,000. This is for the purchase of a principal residence by first-time home buyers from January 1, 2009, to December 1, 2009. To qualify your family income may not exceed $150,000 if filing jointly. For a single taxpayer the income should not exceed $75,000. The credit will be forfeited if the house is sold within three years. Mr. Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, says the $8,000 tax credit should boost home sales by 300,000 for first-time home buyers. If the $8,000 tax credit is greater than the tax you paid, then you will get a refund check for the difference.

Also, the Bill has $50 billion for foreclosure mitigation. As he said, NAR preserved what we already had, including mortgage interest and real estate tax deductibility and the $250,000/$500,000 capital gains exclusion on principal residence sales (IRC Section 121). Also there was no change in the IRC 1031 Like Kind Exchange regulations. With quick effort real estate agents can increase sales to qualified home buyers and thus increase the sale of relinquished properties for exchangors ready to invest in a replacement property.


Posted by Philip Jernigan, SRA on March 21st, 2009 8:24 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Mecklenburg Stats - YTD 1/1/2009 to 2/28/2009
March 20th, 2009 9:02 PM

YTD Activity Report: 1/1/2009 through 2/28/2009

Property Type: Single Family

Office Code:  4812   Phillip Jernigan
Area New Avg LP Under Contract Avg LP Sold Avg SP %SP/LP Avg DOM
1 601 $257,003 249 $204,163 161 $185,906 95.96% 115
2 419 $185,824 201 $128,877 137 $119,656 94.08% 94
3 250 $216,052 108 $162,617 58 $156,648 93.17% 86
4 416 $478,388 83 $313,501 59 $329,468 95.32% 125
5 584 $673,392 133 $414,076 103 $348,597 93.56% 120
6 200 $314,817 51 $232,590 37 $242,657 96.83% 81
7 235 $177,633 123 $190,603 90 $150,221 96.14% 81
8 233 $134,290 128 $122,429 75 $78,876 93.01% 92
9 312 $211,187 151 $173,719 125 $151,616 95.46% 103
  3,250 $294,287 1,227 $215,841 845 $195,960 94.84% 99
Information is Believed To Be Accurate But Not Guaranteed Carolina Multiple Listing Service, Inc.

Posted by Philip Jernigan, SRA on March 20th, 2009 9:02 PMPost a Comment (0)

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cabarrus stats - 02272009
March 13th, 2009 12:34 PM
Sales Statistics
for CABARRUS County NC
Realist's most recent recording date for this county is 02/27/2009
 Single Family Residence
 Time Period Number of Sales Median Sale Price 
 Jan 2009 90 $148,250 
 Jan 2008 230 $154,750 
 Dec 2008 163 $172,000 
 Dec 2007 319 $191,000 
 2009 YTD 170 $151,250 
 2008 2,817 $172,000 
 Condominium
 Time Period Number of Sales Median Sale Price 
 Jan 2009 1 $97,000 
 Jan 2008 6 $87,000 
 Dec 2008 2 $134,500 
 Dec 2007 21 $121,000 
 2009 YTD 4 $107,000 
 2008 71 $103,000 

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3Q2008 for NC
March 6th, 2009 7:43 AM

iGrowth Rate of Housing Prices: US and States*

Area                                        1 Year    Growth    5 Year         Ave. SP      

North Carolina                           -0.63%     1.99%     29.86%

Rocky Mount, NC                        2.19%     6.84%     17.02%

Raleigh-Cary, NC                        0.41%      3.84%     27.81%

Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC      1.87%     3.68%     20.38%

Greensboro-High Point, NC          -0.06%     2.63%    16.08%

Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC    -1.70%   1.58%     26.80%     $219,772 

Third Quarter of 2008 - Data taken from CRS Powertools


Posted by Philip Jernigan, SRA on March 6th, 2009 7:43 AMPost a Comment (0)

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