The value of homes in North Carolina puts the state into some stable territory considering the number of elements currently shifting during the current economic downturn.
By Stephanie ArmourUSA TODAY
Housing prices in May showed their first gain in three years, a sign that the beleaguered market may finally be turning around.
Home prices rose 0.5% in May from April, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index, which measures changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 cities.
It also comes on the heels of other promising signs that the market is stabilizing, including a smaller inventory of homes for sale and a continuing rise in home sales.
"This corroborates a lot of other economic indicators that have been telling us the housing market is in the process of turning around," says Bernard Baumohl at the Economic Outlook Group. "The worst is over."
After 16 consecutive months of record year-over-year price declines, beginning in October 2007 and ending in January 2009, the home price index has now shown four consecutive months of smaller annual declines.
Cities still struggling include Phoenix, where homes sales were down 34.2% from May 2008; and Las Vegas, where they were down 32%. San Francisco prices in May were 26.1% below a year earlier.
Among the best: Dallas and Denver have reported three consecutive months of prices that were higher than a year earlier.
But the housing market still is struggling. Home prices nationwide dropped 17.1% in May compared with May 2008.
"Year-on-year, the growth rates are still awful," says Brian Bethune, an economist at IHS Global Insight, in a statement, adding that "recent housing reports have been promising. This report may be the most promising yet."
Signs that the housing market may be hitting bottom could also mean a more optimistic outlook for the economy, since it was the nose dive in home values that helped launch the recession.
The positive housing data is also good news for lenders, who will see the value of their assets move higher, resulting in fewer losses on the balance sheet.
Economists say the big question now is whether the promising signs in the housing market will encourage homeowners enough to result in more consumer spending.
"At this stage, the question is how quickly consumers respond to the improvement," Baumohl says.
Adds Mark Zandi, with Moody's Economy.com, "The bottom of the market is forming, but price declines aren't over."
Other hints of an improving housing market include a rise in existing-home sales for the third consecutive month in June, according to the National Association of Realtors.
And sales of new homes in June jumped 11% from May, according to government figures, and the supply of homes for sale fell to 8.8 months, the lowest since October 2007.
Some Realtors already are noticing a difference. Julie Wenzel, who owns Re/Max Town Lake & Country in Freeport, Ill., says she's seeing more confidence in the market.
"It's getting better, slowly but surely," Wenzel says. The big problem: "It's still very difficult for people getting loans."
July 22, 2009
Update on Enterprise Implementation of the
Home Valuation Code of Conduct
The Home Valuation Code of Conduct (Code) announced by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Enterprises) in December 2008 was developed after a long period of public input and was deployed on May 1, 2009, after a four-month transition period. The Code expanded on existing Enterprise appraisal standards, seeking to redress problems that contributed to the current mortgage crisis and to improve the quality of the mortgage loans they purchase.
Unfortunately, during the 2005 to 2007 period, mortgage lending was much too aggressive and placed pressure on the appraisal process. In some cases, that resulted in unrealistically high appraisals, hurting homebuyers as well as investors. The HVCC is designed to promote professional appraisals free from inappropriate pressure from lenders, borrowers or brokers.
The Code’s main purpose is to protect appraisers and the quality of appraisals from undue influence and conflicts of interest. The Enterprises continue to address questions on implementation and today provided additional FAQs. Also, they are finalizing a complaint form relating to Code violations.
Market participants should appreciate the difficulty facing appraisers when valuing properties in a declining market, especially when sharply dropping home prices and foreclosures are prevalent. The challenges of appraising properties exist with or without the Code. Market participant concerns in the current circumstances would create appraisal controversies even without the Code. Indeed, the Code should help mitigate these controversies by providing clearer protection for appraisers.
The Enterprises have taken additional actions. For example, Freddie Mac recently issued an alert to mortgage lenders advocating the use of qualified and experienced real estate appraisers, including those appraisers affiliated with a professional organization. This was similar to a Fannie Mae pronouncement. The Appraisal Institute termed this a victory for efforts to promote more professional appraisals and said it would "have a positive effect on millions of home buyers and sellers." The GSE guidances reinforce existing professional standards that appraisers must be familiar with the local market where the property is located and highlighted that appraisers must choose appropriate sales comparisons.
Addressing Misinformation
Misinformation has been circulated about the content of the Code and some have tried to cite the Code as the source of unrelated market dislocations. FHFA believes that the Code is serving the intended purpose and will continue its oversight role both as to the implementation of the Code by the Enterprises and its market impact.
Some key items that the public should know:
Communications with appraisers– Contrary to some suggestions, the Code provides for communications with appraisers about errors, additional needed information and unprofessional conduct. Quality control personnel may communicate with appraisers and other lender personnel, outside of the loan origination function. The real bar is on communications that seek to influence the appraiser to adopt a set valuation, which is prohibited.
Low appraisals— Contrary to some suggestions, the Code does not lead to lower appraisals for property. The Code insulates appraisers from pressures that led to higher or lower appraisals and should now lead to more accurate valuations. This is in everyone’s interest. Declining home prices began long before the deployment of the Code and relate to many other factors. Current efforts at mortgage market stabilization are a central focus at FHFA and the Enterprises, but that needs to be achieved by keeping borrowers in their homes, not urging appraisers to improperly overvalue homes.
Appraisal management company (AMC) role— Contrary to some suggestion, the Code does not favor the use of AMCs over independent or in-house appraisers. Significantly, for the first time, the Code places the same requirements for appraiser independence on AMCs as the limits placed on lenders. Lender use of AMCs was increasing prior to the Code and one of the key goals and results of the Code was to strengthen appraiser protections when engaged by AMCs.
Unqualified or out-of-area appraisers– The Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) requires that an appraiser be competent and knowledgeable of the local market to perform an appraisal. In addition, in reinforcing USPAP, the Enterprise appraisal guides require appraisers to have knowledge of the local market. The use of unqualified in-state or out-of-state appraisers, unfamiliar with local conditions, should be reported to state appraiser licensing agencies.
Increased costs at closing— Closing costs have risen in some instances, but that has not been a function of the Code. Lenders have tightened underwriting standards, often requiring additional comparables by appraisers and even requiring second appraisals. Market investors have focused on reducing fraud and sought greater assurances about valuations. Appraisers have been working hard to meet these requests.
Turnaround times for appraisals— The Code may initially have slowed appraisal time as it was being implemented. However, there are other reasons for turnaround time changes; these include increased demands by lenders, the efficiency of a particular lender’s underwriting process and the workload of appraisers. The Code’s appraiser independence standards are critical for accurate valuations, a lesson learned in the current market crisis. Assuring a good appraisal is in the borrower’s interest. As the market adjusts to new underwriting standards, including those for appraisals, more efficiency will reduce turnaround times.
Transferring an appraisal – Contrary to some suggestions, appraisals are transferrable between lenders under the Code. Transferring an appraisal may obviate the consumer’s need to pay for a new appraisal should the first lender deny the loan. Whether a lender decides to transfer or
accept an appraisal, however, is up to the lender, and is not related to the Code. Lender discretion in this area predated the Code.
* * * *
The Home Valuation Code of Conduct supports the critical role of appraisers and their central role in the underwriting process. Accurate appraisals, produced in line with industry standards and legal requirements, provide key protections for homeowners, the Enterprises and investors who support the markets. The poor practices of the past are being corrected and lessons learned are being addressed.
Mortgage bond prices rallied the first portion of the week only to give back the gains as stocks surged. The DOW eclipsed the 9000 mark. Ben Bernanke spoke of a "jobless recovery", a situation where employers use productivity to increase production without additional labor. This would basically be an environment where the unemployment rate remains high long after the economy is in recovery. There wasn't much data but the existing home sales data did come in higher than expected. For the week interest rates rose by about 1/8 of a discount point.The US Treasury will auction $115 billion of 2, 5, and 7-year notes this week. The additional debt supply may pressure rates. With so many data releases expect the market to be very volatile.
Employment Cost Index
The employment cost index is a quarterly report issued by the Department of Labor. The report measures the growth of wages, salaries, and benefits costs over a certain period of time. Though ECI figures are usually weeks old, the data remains the best indicator of employment price pressures considering it factors employees' total compensation.If wage pressures become evident, higher expectations of inflation also tend to arise. However, increasing compensation does not necessarily lead to increased inflationary pressures. Oftentimes, increased productivity enables employers to increase compensation without increasing the costs of their goods or services.It is important to note that no single economic indicator can consistently predict the future of the economy. However, the employment cost index is a closely watched release. Most of the recent Fed releases and speeches indicate inflation is a concern and market participants remain cautious. Now is a good time to take advantage of mortgage interest rates at their current levels to avoid exposure to future market volatility.
Updated March 2009
To help enhance the integrity of the home appraisal process in the mortgage finance industry, in March 2008, Fannie Mae entered into an agreement with our regulator – the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) (then the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight) – and the New York Attorney General’s office to adopt certain policies relating to appraisals for loans delivered to us. Following a public comment period, the Home Valuation Code of Conduct has been modified and will be effective for single-family mortgage loans (except government-insured loans) that are originated on or after May 1, 2009, and delivered to Fannie Mae.
Scope of Coverage
What loans are affected by the new Home Valuation Code of Conduct?
Fannie Mae has agreed to adopt the Home Valuation Code of Conduct ("the Code") for all conventional, single-family loans originated on or after May 1, 2009, that are delivered to Fannie Mae. For purposes of the Code, origination date means the date of the application. The Code will not apply to multifamily loans, or to loans insured or guaranteed by a federal agency; the Code only applies to 1- to 4-unit single-family loans sold to Fannie Mae. The Code will not apply to loans sold to Fannie Mae on or after May 1, 2009 that were originated prior to May 1, 2009.
What are the professional requirements for an appraiser under the Code?
The Code requires that an appraiser must be licensed or certified by the state in which the property to be appraised is located.
Does the Code allow an appraiser to update an appraisal for another lender?
Yes. The Code does not prevent an appraiser from performing an update of an appraisal for another lender.
Does the Code apply outside of New York State?
Yes. There is no geographic limitation.
Who besides Fannie Mae has agreed to adopt the Code? Are the Federal Home Loan Banks participating? The FHA?
As of this date, only Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have agreed to adopt the Code.
After May 1, 2009, is it permissible for Fannie Mae to purchase private label securities backed by mortgage loans that do not meet the requirement of the Code?
Yes. The Code applies only to 1- to 4-unit single-family loans sold to Fannie Mae by mortgage originators. It does not extend to Fannie Mae’s investments in mortgage-related securities.
© Fannie Mae. 2009. FM 0309 Page 1 of 8
Does the Code require lenders to obtain appraisals where they were under no such requirement pursuant to the Fannie Mae
No, nothing in the Code requires a lender to obtain a property valuation, or to use any particular method for property valuation. Nor does the Code affect the acceptable scope of work for an appraiser in connection with a particular assignment.
How does Section I.B.(8) impact how lenders may remove appraisers from a list of qualified appraisers?
Section I.B.(8) addresses the removal of an appraiser from a list of qualified appraisers in connection with influencing or attempting to influence the outcome of an appraisal. Any such removal would be subject to the requirements of the process outlined in that section. However, Section I.B.(8) does not preclude the management of appraiser lists for bona fide administrative reasons based on written, management-approved policies. Also, Section IV.B.(6) provides for lenders to have written policies and procedures implementing the Code including rules on appraiser independence, and to have mechanisms in place to report and discipline anyone who violates these policies and procedures.
Does Section I.B.(9) specifically prohibit a lender from ordering a second appraisal?
No. Section I.B.(9) only prohibits a lender from ordering a second appraisal when they are attempting to influence the outcome of the first appraisal and are now "value-shopping." As a risk control measure for certain loan products, it may be common for a lender to order more than one appraisal, and this subsection does not prohibit that practice.
Does the Code specifically prohibit communication with an appraiser by a real estate agent?
No.
Does Section II of the Code require the lender to provide the appraisal free of charge?
No. The Code requires the lender to provide, free of charge, a "copy" of any appraisal report completed in association with a specific loan. The lender may require the borrower to reimburse the lender for the cost of the appraisal.
What is the time frame for providing the "copy" of the appraisal?
The lender must provide the copy promptly upon completion of the appraisal, but no less than three
How is the lender required to provide the borrower with a copy of the appraisal?
The Code does not provide a specific method of delivery. The lender is responsible for ensuring that the borrower receives a copy of the appraisal.
Section II of the Code allows the borrower to waive the three-day requirement for receiving a copy of the appraisal. What is an acceptable procedure if the borrower chooses to waive the three-day requirement?
The lender is responsible for establishing a process and procedure for documenting the borrower’s waiver of the three-day requirement.
© Fannie Mae. 2009 FM 0309 Page 2 of 8
Does the Code prohibit an appraiser from collecting payment for the appraisal directly from the borrower?
Yes, for loans to be delivered to Fannie Mae. The Code requires the lender or any third party specifically authorized by the lender to select, retain, and provide for all compensation to the appraiser.
Who should be considered the "loan production staff" for purposes of achieving appraiser independence?
The term "loan production staff" is not defined in the Code. However, the FAQs prepared by federal agencies on the agencies’ appraisal regulations specify as follows:
"The loan production staff consists of those responsible for generating loan volume or approving loans, as well as their subordinates. This would include an employee whose compensation is based on loan volume or the closing of a loan transaction. Employees responsible for the credit administration function or credit risk management are not considered loan production staff."
What is the definition of a "correspondent" lender?
A "correspondent" is a third-party entity that may originate and underwrite the mortgage. The correspondent closes the mortgage in its own name with its own funds, and sells it to the lender. The mortgage is sold to Fannie Mae by the lender.
Does the Code apply to other valuation methods (i.e., automated valuation models [AVMs], broker price opinions [BPOs], tax assessments, etc.)?
No, the Code applies only to appraisals.
May lenders rely on appraisals ordered by settlement service firms?
Yes. Settlement service firms may order appraisals if they comply with the Code, Sections IV.C.(1) and (2).
Does the Code apply to a loan that is insured or guaranteed by a federal agency and ultimately sold to Fannie Mae (i.e., FHA or VA loan)?
The Code does not apply to loans that are insured or guaranteed by a federal agency, such as FHA and VA loans.
If a lender or appraisal management company maintains a legacy appraiser panel for which loan production staff may have recommended or influenced the selection of appraisers, is the lender required under Section III.B of the Code to reselect such panels prior to the May 1, 2009 effective date?
No, the Code does not require the lender to reselect appraiser panels; however, any legacy appraisal panel must comply with the provisions of the Code.
Does the Code apply to the Desktop Underwriter
No, Form 2075 is an inspection report. It is not an appraisal, and therefore the Code does not apply.
Does the Code apply to appraisals performed for loss mitigation?
The Code applies to loans originated and sold to either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. It does not apply to appraisals performed for loss mitigation purposes.
© Fannie Mae. 2009 FM 0309 Page 3 of 8
How will Fannie Mae audit compliance with the Code?
Compliance with the Code will be part of the lenders’ operational review.
Section IV.E. of the Code allows an exception to Section IV if the Seller meets the definition of a "small bank" and Fannie Mae determines the Seller would suffer a hardship due to the provisions of Section IV of the Code. What are the requirements for this provision?
An institution falls under the provisions of Section IV.E. of the Code if it is a seller/servicer of Fannie Mae, a regulated financial institution with asset values as specified in 12 U.S.C. §2908, and meets the requirements, if any, of the institution’s regulatory agency regarding the Interagency Appraisal and Evaluation Guidelines (SR Letter 94-55 and revisions). As with the entire Code, this provision is subject to Fannie Mae’s representations and warranties. Sellers falling under Section IV.E. are still required to comply with the remainder of the Code, including Section III, which duplicates many of the requirements of Section IV.
Is a Seller required to submit documentation to Fannie Mae to take a Section IV.E. exemption?
Fannie Mae does not require a Seller to submit documentation to become exempt pursuant to Section IV.E of the Code. A Seller claiming this exemption, however, represents and warrants that it meets the criteria of Section IV.E.
Is the definition of application date the actual date of the application or the date of receipt of the application by the lender?
The application date is defined as the date the borrower(s) signed the application certifying that the information is correct.
Selection of an Appraiser
When selecting an appraiser, may lenders use a pre-approved appraiser list or panel?
Yes. Lenders may use a pre-approved list or panel to select a residential appraiser, provided that (1) any employees of the lender tasked with selecting appraisers for the list are independent of the loan production staff; and (2) the loan production staff is not involved in selecting appraisers off the list for particular appraisal assignments.
May a servicer use an affiliate company to order appraisals for borrower-initiated private mortgage insurance cancellation based on current value?
Yes. The Code does not apply to appraisals for cancelling mortgage insurance based on current value. The Code is specific to "a mortgage financing transaction," and cancellation of mortgage insurance is not "a mortgage financing transaction." The Fannie Mae
Some lenders have proprietary automated origination systems that include a process for ordering appraisals. How does the Code impact those systems?
The lender must review its systems to ensure that the selection of appraiser process is in compliance with the provisions of the Code.
© Fannie Mae. 2009 FM 0309 Page 4 of 8
In-House Appraisers
May in-house appraisers prepare appraisal reports?
Yes, in-house appraisers may prepare appraisal reports if the conditions of Section IV.B. are met.
May a lender’s in-house appraiser adjust the value on an appraisal during an appraisal review as part of a pre-funding or post-funding quality control process?
Yes, a lender may use an appraisal that has been adjusted by an in-house appraiser during a review process. The Code does not prohibit the underwriting of an appraisal by a lender’s underwriting staff. The Code does not prohibit a lender’s due diligence in originating a loan.
May a correspondent lender use in-house appraisers?
Yes, a correspondent lender may use in-house appraisers if they meet the criteria in Section IV.B. of the Code.
Are any institutions excluded from these restrictions on the use of in-house appraisers?
Yes. Please refer to Qs 25 and 26.
Appraisal Management Companies (AMCs)
Is a lender required to use an AMC for ordering appraisals?
No. A lender may order appraisals directly from an individual appraiser.
May an AMC affiliated with, or that owns or is owned in whole or in part by the lender or a lender-affiliate, order appraisals?
Yes, an AMC affiliated with, or that owns or is owned in whole or in part by the lender or a lender-affiliate, may order appraisals if the AMC meets the criteria of Section IV.B. of the Code.
May a lender direct a mortgage broker to a specifically authorized AMC that will receive information from the broker about the loan application and begin the appraisal process?
Yes, as long as the lender has previously arranged for its appraisal process to be managed by the specifically authorized AMC. This process is compliant with the Code because the broker is not responsible for selecting, retaining, or providing for payment of compensation to the appraiser.
May a lender that uses a group of specifically authorized AMCs direct a broker to use a specific AMC from the group to submit information about the loan application and begin the appraisal process.
Yes. As stated in the answer to Q37, this process is compliant with the Code because the broker is not responsible for selecting, retaining, or providing for payment of compensation to the appraiser.
May a lender order an appraisal by directing a broker to select an AMC from among a group of specifically authorized AMCs, one of which would receive information from the broker about the loan application and begin the appraisal process?
No. Such a process would give the broker an element of responsibility for selecting or retaining the appraiser, and therefore would not be compliant with the Code.
© Fannie Mae. 2009 FM 0309 Page 5 of 8
May a lender direct a broker to use a web portal set up either by the lender, or by the lender’s authorized agent, through which the broker inputs a request for an appraisal and then triggers the lender’s system to order an appraisal?
Yes.
Mortgage Brokers
May a lender accept an appraisal prepared by an appraiser that was ordered by a mortgage broker?
No. The Code does not allow a lender to accept an appraisal prepared by an appraiser that was ordered by a mortgage broker as noted in Section IIIA. of the Code.
May a mortgage broker provide the lender with an approved appraiser list for the lender to use when ordering appraisals for that particular broker?
May a mortgage broker order an appraisal directly from an AMC that was specifically authorized by the lender?
The Code prohibits brokers from ordering appraisal services, but brokers may initiate the appraisal process on a lender’s behalf in accordance with arrangements made by the lender. See Q37 for details.
Does the Code permit a mortgage broker to select an appraiser from the lender’s list of approved appraisers, if the lender is responsible for the relationship with the appraiser, including compensation?
No. The Code prohibits lenders from relying on an appraisal where the broker had a role in selecting, retaining, or compensating the appraiser.
Portability of the Appraisal
May an appraisal be transferred to a lender from a correspondent lender and, if so, under what circumstances?
Yes, a lender may accept an appraisal from a correspondent lender that complies with the Code.
A mortgage broker submits a loan to lender A, which orders an appraisal. The broker later decides to submit the loan to lender B because it is offering better terms, or for another reason. May the appraisal obtained by lender A be used by lender B (assuming the mortgage broker has no control over or involvement in the assignment)?
Yes, a lender may accept an appraisal from a different lender that complies with the requirements of the Code and in particular Section III.A. in connection with the loan being originated. Lender A must be named as client on the appraisal report.
© Fannie Mae. 2009 FM 0309 Page 6 of 8
Lender A (an approved Fannie Mae Seller/Servicer) originates and closes a loan in its name, but sells it to lender B (another Fannie Mae approved Seller/Servicer), which in turn sells that loan to Fannie Mae. Is lender B under any obligation to obtain a new appraisal?
No. Lender B may buy a closed loan from Lender A and sell the loan to Fannie Mae without a new appraisal if Lender B can represent and warrant that any appraisal conducted in connection with the loan conforms to the Code.
Section III.A of the Code allows a lender to accept an appraisal prepared by an appraiser for a different lender, provided the lender: (1) obtains written assurances that such other lender follows the Code in connection with the loan being originated; and (2) determines that such appraisal conforms to its requirements for appraisals and is otherwise acceptable. Will Fannie Mae provide a standard form to the lender so that the written assurance can be documented?
Fannie Mae will not provide a standard form. The lender is responsible for documenting the written assurance from the other lender.
Can an AMC or a third-party designee provide the written assurance (referenced in Q48) or does the assurance have to come from the prior lender?
The assurance must come from the original lender.
Payment for the Appraisal
If the appraisal is ordered by the lender in a Code-compliant manner, are there any specific requirements about how the payment for the appraisal is transferred to the lender?
Except for the requirement that the broker may not be responsible for payment of compensation to the appraiser, the Code does not restrict how a lender obtains fees from a broker. So, for instance, a borrower may write a check to a broker, or provide their credit card information to a broker, for the broker to send to the lender or to an agent authorized by the lender.
Are borrowers precluded from providing payment for an appraisal to an AMC?
The Code does not prohibit a borrower from providing payment to an AMC; however, the borrower may not pay the appraiser directly for an appraisal.
Appraisal Review
Does the Code permit an underwriter or processor to contact an appraiser in order to request additional information, seek an explanation about a valuation, or to request a correction of an objective factual error in an appraisal report?
The underwriter or processor may communicate with an appraiser if they do not violate the requirements outlined in Section III.B of the Code.
© Fannie Mae. 2009 FM 0309 Page 7 of 8 © Fannie Mae. 2009 FM 0309 Page 8 of 8
Quality Control
Does the quality control requirement as noted in Section VI of the Code apply to all valuations completed by a lender or just those loans originated and sold to Fannie Mae?
The quality control requirement applies to all loans that were originated by the lender or acquired from a third party. It is important to note that our current quality control requirements, as noted in the
Does the Code require a lender to report appraisers to the applicable State certifying and licensing agency?
Yes, if a lender has reason to believe an appraiser is violating applicable laws or otherwise engaging in unethical conduct, they shall promptly refer the matter to the applicable board or agency.
Independent Valuation Protection Institute (IVPI)
What is the status of the IVPI?
The structure of the IVPI has not yet been determined and the IVPI has not yet been established. Therefore, the provisions in the Code regarding the IVPI are not yet effective.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is pleased with one underwriting guideline adjustment made last week by government sponsored enterprise, Freddie Mac.
Freddie Mac's Bulletin 2009-18 announced several changes to the GSE's underwriting guidelines. The changes deal mainly with the documentation required for income and asset verification, make "condominium hotel" loans ineligible for purchase, and eliminated Form 70A, Energy Addendum as a required attachment to appraisals.
More notably, Freddie Mac made several "Best Practices" recommendations for selecting appraisers and reviewing their products. One of these contained the statement that Freddie does not require appraisers to use Real Estate Owned, foreclosures or short sales in selecting comparable sales but rather that appraisers must "certify that comparable sales chosen are those most similar to the subject property." These should include distressed sales if they are representative, something many industry professionals have been requesting since the Home Valuation Code of Conduct was enacted on May 1, 2009.
In a press release on Monday, NAHB Chairman Joe Robson said that this was "a step in the right direction," but that this modification needed to go further. He called for additional changes that would allow appraisers the option of expanding both the geographic area and the time frame for comps in cases where local and recent contracts are heavily skewed toward distressed sales.
He cited a recent survey by NAHB that found that 26 percent of builders have seen signed contracts fall apart because of appraisals that do not reflect the contract sales price. Of these, 54 percent said that the questionable appraisals were actually coming in at less than the cost of building the home.
In addition, 60 percent of those responding to the survey knew of problems in their market areas caused by inadequate appraisal values. The biggest problem reported resulted from the use of foreclosures and distressed sales as comparables.
The NAHB's position is that such sales should not be used without appropriate adjustments to reflect the cost of improving them to a point where they are a valid comp and a reasonable alternative for the home buyer.
"Home builders are increasingly concerned that inappropriate appraisal practices are needlessly driving down home values," Robson said. "This, in turn, is slowing new home sales, causing more workers to lose their jobs and putting a drag on the economic recovery.
The NAHB further stated that current appraisal practices are causing other problems for builders by depressing the availability of acquisition, development, and construction funds. The low values being assigned to land and subdivisions have caused banks and investors to cut lending to builders, require additional collateral, or even call performing loans.
"If the spigot for housing production loans is cut off, there can be no housing recovery, and this has major implications for the economy as a whole," said Robson.
Mortgage bond prices had another volatile week with rates rallying midweek as the additional Treasury debt was absorbed well. Foreign demand for the shorter-term auctions was surprisingly strong while the longer-term auction was average. The US Treasury auctioned $963 billion of debt the first half of this year and is expected to offer $1.1trillion in he second half. Weekly jobless claims were not as bad as expected which didn't help mortgage bond prices. However, falling oil prices helped ease inflation fears and enabled mortgage bond prices to increase, which pushed rates lower. Oil was under $60/barrel last Thursday morning. For the week interest rates improved by about 1/2 of a discount point.The consumer price index data Wednesday will be the most important data this week. Signs of inflationary pressures from any of the data releases will not bode well for mortgage interest rates.
Fed Minutes
The Federal Open Market Committee decided in December of 2004 to reduce the lag time between the open market committee meeting and the release of the minutes from six to eight weeks to only three weeks. The minutes from the meeting have the ability to cause mortgage interest rate volatility because they provide more policy details than the standard post meeting release. Most importantly the minutes provide the Fed's complete economic analysis and the various opinions of individual Fed members. There is typically an overwhelming consensus among the members. However, there can also be dissension, which often causes uneasiness in the financial markets. The release often comes and goes without much uproar but keep in mind that if any of the text seems troubling to analysts you can see market volatility.Remember that mortgage interest rates remaining historically favorable. Capitalizing on current levels is wise amid the recent economic instability across the globe. Inflation fears could be stoked with continued Middle East tension and hurricane season heading our way. Inflation, real or perceived, generally does not bode well for mortgage bonds and could cause rates to rise.
By Sandra M. Jones
RISMEDIA, July 7, 2009-(MCT)-When do you know that the economy is on the mend? When the wealthy start spending again. And the rich aren’t expected to start digging into their Birkin bags anytime soon.
The luxury market, historically resilient to economic downturns, is forecast to drop an unprecedented 10 percent this year, according to a June report from Bain & Co. The Boston-based firm predicts purveyors of luxury goods won’t experience a full recovery until 2012.
Keeping an eye on the spending of the rich is a favorite American pastime. But it is also key to the economic recovery, said Ron Kurtz, president of the American Affluence Research Center.
The richest 10 percent of U.S. households account for as much as 50 percent of consumer spending, according to the center’s calculations, based on Federal Reserve Board data. Consumer spending, in turn, accounts for about 70 percent of gross domestic product.
“The affluent market is a leading indicator of what’s to come,” said Kurtz. “Given their losses in the value of their homes, investment and savings that they have experienced over the past two years, the affluent are likely to be conservative spenders until these losses have been largely recovered.”
The situation is prompting drastic measures in retailing’s upper stratosphere.
Neiman Marcus announced recently that it plans to stock more lower-priced designer goods and reduce hours at half its stores. Barneys New York, the temple of fashion, turned to its Dubai parent Istithmar World Capital for a cash infusion in April to make sure its shelves are stocked this fall. Saks Fifth Avenue is considering shutting some stores.
And even the New York Yankees lowered by half the $2,500 ticket price for some premium seats shortly after its new stadium opened this spring.
One school of thought is the notion that well-heeled shoppers are holding back because they are self-conscious about their wealth in the midst of a deep recession, a trend pundits label “luxury shame.”
The American Affluence Research Center found that 90 percent of the most affluent households have always avoided ostentatious consumption and are “careful spenders and aggressive savers.” Their spending habits aren’t expected to change anytime soon.
The center’s spring 2009 survey found that 68 percent of the respondents have no plans to make any of the following major expenditures in the next 12 months: a car, cruise, boat, new home, vacation home or a home remodel project. That is a record high, as well as a marked jump from 53 percent in spring 2008 and 36 percent in spring 2005.
While the recession was well under way in 2008, luxury spending held up until the financial markets collapsed last fall. The quick disappearance of investment bank Lehman Brothers and the financial turmoil that followed exposed the fragility of much of the wealth in the country. The speed at which everything from stocks to homes to complex financial instruments lost significant value shook the luxury world down to the red soles of its Christian Louboutins.
Now, glitzy shopping streets from Madison Avenue to Rodeo Drive to Chicago’s Oak Street are dotted with empty storefronts and sale signs.
“When a billionaire says, ‘Is this expensive?’ I don’t know how to answer,” said Sara Albrecht, owner of Oak Street designer boutique Ultimo, which carries top designers such as Michael Kors and Vera Wang. Her store was among many on Oak Street that had sale signs in their windows last week, including Kate Spade, Paul Stewart, Lucca and Yves Saint Laurent.
“Everybody comes in and explains why they aren’t spending any money,” Albrecht said. “They saw how quickly things turned and it’s still in the back of their minds. It’s like people who grew up in the Depression. Overnight the country got a little bit of that mentality ingrained in them. A lot of them will be fine, but if you’ve never had that shock, you don’t know.”
Luxury became so accessible in the past decade that it lost much of its meaning, said Richard Baker, chief executive of Premium Knowledge Group, a Dallas-based luxury consulting firm. Anyone could carry a $2,300 Gucci handbag by putting it on a credit card or, better yet, renting from a new crop of online luxury rental merchants. Jimmy Choo and Yves Saint Laurent opened outlet stores. And flying first class was no longer a privilege.
“I think there was too much of everything, and I feel like the whole industry had to take a laxative,” designer Diane von Furstenberg told Women’s Wear Daily in May.
Now there’s a growing effort among designer firms to ditch the word “luxury” and return to their roots of providing craftsmanship and service, Baker said. In the interim, some luxury brands are expected to disappear or shift down-market.
When the luxury recovery arrives, there will be fewer true luxury firms around, Baker predicted.
“Those brands that have historic credibility will try to become more like Hermes, which would burn unsold merchandise rather than show up in a factory store someplace,” Baker said.
Bain predicts a gradual return of global luxury sales: up only 1 percent in 2010, 4 percent in 2011 and 7.5 percent in 2012 from the year-earlier periods. That would put the luxury market by 2012 at the 2007 level of about 170 million euros, or roughly $240 billion dollars at today’s exchange rate, the firm said.
“Listen, we don’t know what our customer is ultimately going to do until she comes into the store and starts to shop again at a meaningful level,” said Burt Tansky, Neiman Marcus Inc.’s president and CEO, during the retailer’s third-quarter earnings call last week.
“But our opinion is that the recovery, when it comes . . . will come slowly. It will not be the same break out of the gates as we had seen in the past.”
©2009, Chicago Tribune.Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.
Appraisal Info | How to Prepare | Home Seller Services | For Buyers | Estate | Divorce | FAQ | Our Technology | Why an appraisal? | Home | Why Order Online? | Faster Appraisals | SRA Designation | Appraiser Ethics | Pre-Listing Appraisals | Relocation Appraisal | Foreclosure/REO Appraisal | Appraisal Reviews | CHARLOTTE REAL ESTATE NEWS | FHA Approved
Copyright © 2010 Allstate Appraisal Associates, Inc.Portions Copyright © 2010 a la mode, inc.Another XSite by a la mode, inc. | Admin Login| Terms of Use| Site Map